Luke Janssen

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Archive for TigerSpike Innovation Lab

iPhone 3.0 Software

I decided to write this document because I did some reading and watched the iPhone 3.0 video (which you can too here, but who has time to sit through over an hour of video these days, so below are the highlights and some analysis of what this means to you, with some time segments of the video referenced so you can go straight there without having to see the whole thing. Summary is here [01:22:10].

There are some also insights into iPhone too and why you should care about it more than you think you should.

The short answer is that the new improvements in 3.0 make an already great product even better. There really is no excuse for brands not to have a presence in the app store.

Key Statistics

  • 30 million iPhones and iPod touches and growing
  • In 80 countries. They excluded China, our man on the ground there tells me there are so many (All cracked of course)
  • 45,000 apps and over 1 Billion downloads from the app store so far
  • iPhone 3.0 SDK was released for the developers on St Patricks day 2009, and will be pushed out to everyone’s phones this summer
  • iPhone apps are now being approved within 2 weeks
  • I could go on, but the short answer is that the iPhone really needs to be the centrepiece of your digital strategy. It is the quickest way to start doing something that works

For me this graph is the most important

iPhone usage

The blue bars are how many handsets are out there, and the red is how much traffic they generate as a % of all traffic. See if you can guess which one the iPhone is! What this means is that despite having a small number of total devices, iPhones do the most searching of the mobile web. Almost HALF of all traffic is generated by 8% of devices.

This is because:

  • Design of the iPhone is way nicer than all others at the moment, so you want to interact with it
  • The usability of the iPhone is way better  than all other phones. They just spent more time getting it right

I know people who switched from a high end Nokia perfectly capable of web browsing, but only started when they got their iPhone. This may not be the case for ever, but it is the case now.

Apps are a similar story. The Blackberry app store is a very poor cousin to the iPhone store. No comparison really, and Nokia Ovi will take a while to gain traction, although both have potential.

Summary of 3.0 new features

This section will loosely follow the video, and if you want to see more you can go straight to the time listed.

In app purchase [00:11:00]

This means you can buy extra stuff without leaving the app. You set the price, get 70% of it back and Apple pay you monthly . Apart from extra game levels, the big winners here are magazines, and in particular magazine groups.

For two reasons:

  • You only create one app, and then sell each edition of the magazine. You can get revenue straight away and so don’t need to rely on mobile advertising, which won’t bear fruit until 2010/2011 in my opinion. If you want that route, go for Sponsorship for 6 to 12 months with one of your best advertisers
  • This spring, The Audit Bureau of Circulations (in the USA) has recently allowed non replica versions of magazines to count towards paid digital circulation. This means your iPhone magazines can boost your circulation numbers (and therefore your ad rates).

For city guides, or groups with many titles, check out [00:12:00]. Having one main app means revenue potential is way higher than for individual apps per issue. AND you get to cross promote.

Any magazine or magazine group that isn’t taking advantage of the 30m people and the easy payment mechanism that this new channel gives needs their head examining.

Push notification [00:22:00]

This is one of the best features of the 3.0 software. It allows the application to send you an alert which you can then click on to go into the application (either on a pop up screen, or in the SMS inbox). If you pushlook at usage patterns of applications, people stop using them fairly quickly. These reminders are good ways to reduce this.

Check out how ESPN are sending over 50m push notifications a month  for sports [00:39:15]. Very cool. If you do alerts, have a look at how ESPN are doing it and copy them!

Another cool thing is that you get to assign your own sound to the push notification.

Accessories [00:18:00]

This lets developers design for accessories. This new API lets you control the accessory from the iPhone. For example a graphic equaliser to control a spreaker that you plug your iPhone into it.

The main winners here are the medical devices companies. There is a good example of what Johnson and Johnson are doing at [00:43:30]

But so what you can do the same for other devices? The thing is that iPhone is way easier to use, and looks good. For older people this is what they need. Until the iPhone, high end devices perplexed the older generation (and when I say older generation, I of course mean anyone over 30! :)

Maps [00:19:05]

mapsWE can now use Google maps within iPhone applications, including location based information (with GPS, Wifi and cell tower triangulation for non 3G devices). The maps are free:  You don’t need to buy or license your own maps, you use Google’s. Which are the standard these days.

Knowing where you are opens up one of THE key values of mobile, so the Big winners here are any applicaitons that direct you somewhere. Restaurants, Hotels, Shops, events, parties etc… Finding out wher eyou are now, and whee you need to get to is way easier now.

Palm Pre has full turn by turn directions with their GPS, which 3.0 does allow IF you bring yourown maps. Great news for people like Tom Tom and NavMan as they have 30m potential new customers. And in app purchasing means that they can make their money on the additional maps needed.

Peer to Peer [00:14:50]

This is great for games where you want to play against other gamers near you. But it is also great for business.

The great thing here is that it connects over bluetooth with automatic discovery and no pairing. So it is easy. I don’t care what anyone says, Bluetooth up until now has just not worked. We have been working with it for 6 years.

So the big winner here in my opinion is brand sponsored games or business applications where the main areas of business are in big cities like London, or New York (or anywhere where there will be more than one iPhone out there). I ride the subway from Brooklyn to Manhatten every morning, and see at least 3 other iPhones, but you do need this.

Other cool customer features [01:03:00]

  • In app email – will mean that viral spreading of apps or content from apps becomes way easier
  • Streaming audio and video – iPhones now become radios. All radio stations must build fron ends
  • iPod access – so you can access the songs from within your app. Great for personalised applications [00:34:00]. In SIMS3, you can buy a stereo in game and play your own songs through it!
  • Landscape keyboard – a big criticism of the iPhone compared to Blackberry was the keyboard. JD power recently rated the iPhone number one in customer satisfaction among business users so don’t be surprised to see Blackberry overtaken soon for this demographic [01:11:50]
  • MMS – this is now supported allowing sending of video and multiple images. Great for news for companies who want to do UGC campaigns [01:12:20]
  • Universal search –lets you type in a search word, find it within emails, notes, songs, apps…  everything  [01:17:32]. Probably a reaction to Palm Pre’s similar functiaonloity but pretty good nontheless.
  • Copy and Paste – you can now do this from anywhere to anywhere [01:09:22]

What not to do

Don’t go cheap. To quote my Singaporean camera sales guy “you want cheap?, is no good… you want good? Is no cheap”. We have seen a few times where clients have gone for the cheap option. One had to completely rebuild their app, and the other is still waiting forit to deliver 3 months later. Don’t pinch pennies on this, you wouldn’t with your corporate website, and you shouldn’t with your iPhone app.

Use professionals. If you can find an independent iPhone developer who is good and professional, then great. If he or she is a good designer even better. But from our experience the best iPhone freelance guys are working for themselves, becoming rich enough by building their own games, and if they mess it up, you are left with no redress.

Put together a Financial model for when the project will break even. If you use US$50k+ as a ballpark for a reasonably good app, and you sell it at $1.99, you know that you need to sell 34,000 apps to break even. Throw in sponsorship, and you can be making a profit before you even start the build. This is absolutely possible, we have seen it work a number of times.

Consider other applications. If you are building an iPhone, keep the wireframes, walkthorughs, designs etc.. for Android / Blackberry / J2ME apps. Don’t pay for separate builds where you don’t have to. Technically since iPhone is written in C and the rest based on Java you will need separate builds, but many elements will be the same.

Nokia vs Apple

This blog entry is mainly about Nokia’s Ovi store. Loosely this is an App store like Apple’s, but it promises to be availble to 300m devices by 2012.

This is big. I am a big fan of apple, but iPhone sales are dwarfed by sales of Nokias. In my opinion Apple is still way ahead in terms of the phone design and useability, but Nokia (and everyone else with varying degrees of success) are all trying to copy; and as Motorola found out, you can’t just make one awesome phone (the V3) and then sit back and bask.

What does Ovi have?

  • A general app store that gives developers 70% of sales revenue (like Apple) accross 15 set price points, and charges though the carriers (after the carriers take their share (which is SHIT – carriers take 40% to 50% – there won’t be anything left!), or through credit card. Apple is way ahead in this respect, and Nokia will have to come up with some more solutions – things like Paypal will help, but one thing Nokia hasn’t got that Apple has is the billing relationship. And that matters. Alot.
  • Nokia music store does pretty much the same thing as iTunes, and also streams from your PC. It also has a recommendation engine which is good, but it isn’t as cool as Apple’s iTunes Genius (neither of which are as good as last.fm)
  • Nokia Friend view, which actually pits Nokia against Google (their new Lattitude service). I think that Google has a better chance, as their solution goes accross all platforms wheras Nokia’s is only availlable on S60 handsets at the moment. They both look cool though – check out the videos here.
  • MOSH which is Nokia’s UGC thing which I won’t go into here.
  • A games capability which Nokia will be ahead of Apple for; due to their experience with the N Gage. That said, Apple is more Wii (because of the accelarometer) and NGage is more Playstation, and I prefer Wii over Playstation. Steve Jobs doesn’t really like gaming either, so he may be missing a trick here. Games outsold DVDs this year. 

Distribution

  • iTunes has between 100m and 250m users depending on who you ask, iPhone has tens of millions
  • Nokia say that Ovi will be on 300m devices by 2012. This is bullish, but Nokia do have 40% of the global market, and there are more than 4bn connections out there (or thereabouts), and 40% of that is 1.6Bn!
  • Something else to remember is that iPhone users use their devices way more than Nokia users do – even the new Nokia devices… we will wait and see what Nokia produces to answer the iPhone. I haven’t seen anything close yet (from anyone – confirmed by our guys Nic and Simon who are at 3GSM  in Barcalona at the moment)

Can Nokia get it on the handsets?

All the new ones yes – the first one is the N97 in May, but they say that they will be able to get it on the Series 40 and 60. Through an ‘on handset’ application. Getting people to download that is by no means easy.

Also remember that Nokia will start to piss the carriers off as they will theorise that they will lose revenue (the credit card part). Who knows they may gain more (i.e. their share of the carrier charged downloads), but they will fight over it – which should be fun to watch!  The carriers need to invest in this stuff too otherwise they will become dumb pipes, which they need to either accept, or do something about. And it has to be something more impressive than Nokia and Apple, and Google can do. And that is a very tall order…

So will Nokia win?

Even considering that Nokia has just laid off a load of their R&D guys due to the recession (Not a good time to need to innovate and develop cool stuff) in summary: If Nokia can connect effectively with their handsets: i.e. all the lower end handsets download the application OR all new Nokias pre load Ovi AND they sort their billing out, AND the carriers don’t kill them, THEN they will have the biggest network in the world. Even if they do this – Apple will still be there, they won’t go away because they are too cool and they do things right and their design is beautiful.

But while Apple is “cooler” than Nokia. it isn’t by that much…. Finnish people never hurt anyone, so Maito on calistaSokeri on Halpa to you!

Do mini projectors mean the death of mobile sites?

In my last post I talked about mobile phones with projectors in them. This means that the small screen can become a big screen (then I saw this article about 3M designing miniature projectors today). So will this mean that all our business designing for the small screen and building mobile sites will dry up?

Well the answer is no. Even if ALL new phones have new projectors in them, it would take 18 to 24 months for those devices to get in people’s hands, so there will be 3 to 4 years before projectors become ubiquitous (god I HATE that word!). It took as long for cameras to get in all phones, which is pretty much is now; but remember the first one was on there 5 years ago.

More importantly, the nature of projectors is that you need to remain in one place (to project on to something), and the nature of mobile is that you engage alot of the the time, when you are on the move; and those two things don’t go together. 

What it does mean is that mobile TV and mobile movies become more viable. Imagine going to iTunes (or bit torrent – lets be honest) with your phone and downloading a movie, then watching it wherever you find a nice surface. And the good thing is that it will look cool (so as I said, the geeks and gadget lovers will love it).

Android app vs iPhone app?

We just bought a G1 in New York to send to Sydney, but before that our man Johnny Makkar had a look at it. See what he wrote here, it was a pretty popular article linked to many others.

Lots of clients are asking about Android now, usually in the same context as iPhone apps. If you do one or the other do an iPhone app, but really the important thing is to design a good, useable application. Once you have done that an android app or iPhone app or mobile site are just ways to communicate that to people using different technologies.

We used to have to do this to an extent with the Java mobile apps that we made – making 20+ versions to deal with the idiosynchracies was not uncommon. Where people are going mad is they are discussing technologies wen they should be discussing the value that the content will provide on mobile. In this respect the more important questions are:

  • what content do you want to make available on mobile?
  • Why use mobile? why is it an appropriate medium (two examples are 1) because the content is needed on the move when you are not in front of your PC, or 2) because you need to get the content or information that second)
  • How will I make it as useable experience as possible. Design! think not just about the screen size, but the mindset of the user when they are interating. 

A note on the G1 phone. looks cool, but iPhone is still way prettier. A nicer piece of design trumps technology any day. Thats why the pink Motorola Razr sold so many – I can just imagine the engineers snigering at the marketing person’s suggestion that making it pink will sell more than some piece of functiaonlity. Well sucked in engineers!

Facebook Shmacebook

I just read a cool piece of research from Ogilvy comparing Facebook and other social networking sites in Asia.

The key thing was that Facebook is not number 1 in most Asian markets. The reasons for this (in short, but I suggest you go read the research HERE, which is also quite succinct) are:

  • Language: Friendster is killing Facebook in Malaysia and Indonesia. Largely because Friendster has Malay / Bahasa Indonesia (which are pretty much the same language – and a beautiful one, I encourage anyone to learn it. Its not too hard. There are no tenses and often to pluralize a noun you just say it twice! :)
  • Customization: Philippines accounts for almost 40% of all Friendster traffic. Filipinas send more SMSs than anyone in the world (SMS started off free there and is still pretty cheap), and Friendster has a good mobile site and good SMS link ups which most importantly, Friendster tailored to them specifically to that market… clever old Friendster (crap name though)
  • Site weight & Broadband usage: India (Orkut) with low broadband means that Facebook is too heavy so they use the lighter Orkut. I am not sure I buy this.
  • Inferiority: Japan (Mixi) and Korea (Cyworld) are examples. Each of their mobile sites blow Facebook’s out of the water (and Facebook’s mobile site and iPhone App are excellent in my opinion). Plus Japanese and Korean are just different. You can’t rope them in with the rest of Asia.

I grew up in a few places, and travelled a lot. I agree with my man in Singapore most of the reasons, but one of the main reasons is that you join what your friends join, and sometimes if one site takes off, then that one tips over the tipping point and wins and not the other one. I reckon Orkut just took off. You don’t want to be sitting alone at Susan Facebook’s party when everyone else is getting down with Deepak Orkut!

And now a question: Why is Philippines spelt with a PH, and Filipino spelt with an F?  Someone call someone.

QR codes and bluetooth – give them at least 18 months

It may sound sexy and if all you want is PR then things like QR codes or Bluetooth are excellent ways of getting it. But if you are looking for a successful way to engage people using mobile, look elsewhere. For now. Unless you want to be a pioneer for a relatively new mobile technology. But that isn’t what brands are supposed to do, they are supposed to work out new ways to sell their product.

QR codes = QR woes

Ralph Lauren did a QR code execution that went like this:

  • SMS a word to a number
  • Get sent back a link
  • Install the QR code reader
  • Take a picture with the reader
  • get the offer or go to the site or whatever
We tried it in the office here in NY with the iPhone, Blackberry, LG Shine, and Nokia N95 and it didn’t work on any of them. Something must have been up, cause it can’t be that bad. And we know what we are doing!
Another execution was QR codes on Papa Johns to get free Pizza. Apparently this was a “success”, but they are giving away free Pizza… free stuff to students isn’t ever going to unsuccessful is it?
The bottom line is that there aren’t enough handsets with QR code readers on them to make this effective for brands. Some are blazing the trail, and if it goes off like in Japan then it will be good. But handset churn is 18 months. So wait 18 months. Minimum.
Matt Turnbull went to a conference here and someone was pushing QR codes, and of the 100+ tech savvy people in the audience who were hand held through how to do it, 2 of them actually managed to. 2!. Seriously!
Blue-untruth
My friend Kristy Manson from m.Net and I frequently chat about this. She tried a bluetooth execution on 3 different phones and it didn’t work on any of them. Bluetooth should never be the central concept unless there is some sort of proximity objective. Remember this, and I quote (Alex Hall is sitting next to me) “Bluetooth is just a delivery enabling technology, Firstly there are better delivery technologies out there with wider reach where less customer interaction is required, and secondly, the more importnat thing is the content. Not how it is delivered. Its like saying “hey I went to a Muse concert the other day, and it was so cool! they arrived in a blue bus!”
That sounds a bit crap? is there anything good about them?
What I do like about Bluetooth is that it can get people interested in a specific location at an event or in a store, and that interaction forces engagement with the brand, and QR codes have great consumer information, but they are both (especially QR codes) early days, and I would never recommend a brand pioneers them. Why not wait 12 months until (and IF) they are more widespread, and then do it?
And yes yes, I know they work in Japan… but Japanese toilet technology hasn’t found its way to the rest of the world despite being way ahead of global toilet technology, and so we shouldn’t assume that their tech will either. Some will. Most won’t. It is about behaviour, not tech. More about this later…

The USA behind in Mobile?… don’t bet on it

I have been living in New York (well half my time at least) for a few months now, talking to various companies about mobile (still sounds funny when the Americans say it), and while some of them still think that ringtone and logo sites are a good idea, most know their stuff.

People always say that country ‘x’ is behind or ahead of coutnry ‘y’ with the most popular sledge (Australian word meaning to ‘take the piss out of’ [english saying meaning "to put down"]) going to the USA. Well I have news for everyone with that viewpoint. You are all wrong. The USA has not only caught up with Europe and Australia, in many areas is has gone past them. USA has more 3G handsets than Europe now, and alot more higher end devices. Nice work American consumers!

Many say this is fuelled by companies like google and Apple, but as far as I am concerned the main driver is money.

  • Budgets in the USA are simply bigger than other parts of the world. The market is bigger, so the marketing is bigger. Deals that mobile companies are making are bigger. Some of our American competitors like Crisp wireless for example started after us, but are way bigger now.
  • The second reason is that venture capital ensures that even the dumbest wireless startups get funding (don’t get me started on some of the inane companies that have received funding). The Australian VC market is such a retarded cousin to Palo Alto, New York, Boston or London, and it really matters. For exampe I have spoken to some really good, innovative guys in Australia, with a great idea who have received no funding, while the mediocre equivalent in the USA is on an express train past the more advanced Aussie thinkers because they just didn’t have the money.
Yes Asia is still ahead (more on that later), but if I hear someone at a conference saying that USA is behind Europe I’ll take that as confirmation that they don’t know what they are talking about (now insert Ultimate Fighting style chants of “U… S… A…. U…S…A….”)

Convergence

I am really liking the move to give away laptops with 3G cards that the carriers are doing at the moment. A few key thoughts of mine about convergence are:

  • PCs are getting smaller. And will continue to do so until it becomes annoying to type or look at them. I have an 11″ sony Vaio which I love (especially as I fly alot and so get to laugh at anyone trying to use a full sized laptop (I travel in Monkey Class – still can’t justify the cost, plus I am sure I am saving carbon from extinction or something). Anyway… laptops are getting smaller and therefore more mobile and therefore more in need of internet connection anywhere, which is why the bundling of the PC and 3G card is a good one, and a big growth area for the carriers in my opinion
  • I use my iPhone way more for data and email and other non voice services than voice (in fact I still use my Samsung for calls) I realise that I am using my computer less and less as a result. Just now I lined my iPhone screen up to my screen and my PC screen is only about 5 or 6 times bigger than my iPhone screen, soon it will be less than a third. Also when in monkey class, the movie plays on a screen thats only about twice as big as my iPhone
  • PCs are getting dumber. Soon PCs will become thin clients with all the processing done on the web, (accessed at ever increasing speeds by sim cards). Apps that I use that have moved on line are lead by Google, with Salesforce also having all the data and processing done on line and Basecamp which we used to use, a great collection of Apps from 37Signals (a company I have lots of respect for).

So Where will convergence stop?

Two things:

  1. The size of my pocket and whether my device feels uncomfortable in it will make a difference. Attention to jeans manufacturers – soon pockets for bigger devices will become useful. The iPhone (sorry to bang on) is big, but also slips nicely into a pocket as its edges are rounded. 
  2. Size of fingers / hands. I have thin girls fingers, so typing on my Vaio is not too difficult. But if you have fingers like my cousins (about 4 times the size of mine) then you are in trouble if you go too much smaller than the smallest Vaios or EPCs.

As I have said in previous posts, plugging devices into brains and projecting them will help this, but that is a little way off yet…

My new iPhone

I have just bought an iPhone (my own one, not one that the developers can play with), and I have to say I am very impressed. Having played with it for 10 minutes I can see how it is going to be such a useful device for me. The best things are (and excuse me if I haven’t found the rest yet, this is my first impression, which we all know is the most important thing – as my Oma used to say “I only need to see my first 5 cards in Bridge to know what I am going to bid!… which used to really piss my Opa off!)

So, main good first impressions are:

  • email is good, but I only have my personal gmail in there at the moment, I will have to wait for Johnny Makkar (our iPhone man in New York) to get to work and tell me how to set the rest of my iPhone sorted
  • downloaded (and paid for!!!) 3 Muse albums from iTunes (including one I already own on CD – yeah I know, but who cares, I like Muse so they can have my money). I was about to buy a Nano, but this has saved me from having to do that
  • set up world clock so I can tell the time at all our offices – Sydney, London and New York (believe me this will save me massive headaches, and I am watching it like a hawk so I know when Johnny is in)
  • Google maps – just a good app that I liked. I get lost alot
  • Carling’s iPint. Which is very cool. Simple. Good branding. It got so much good PR that I wish it was us who did it for one of our beer brands!

So those are my first impressions.

Luke